Thursday, 3 March 2016

The Beginning of the Global Slowdown

The good old world are always nostalgic for the people and also for the financial markets and world economy these days. World enjoying a period of high growth led by China and followed by other emerging economies are over. World economy is shifting to a new form of normalcy with some countries are even thinking about negative rates as the only option for growth. Last year saw the biggest collapse in the value of goods traded around the world since 2009- when the impact of the global financial crisis was at it's worst. Major ports such as Hamburg and Singapore have also reported slowing growth and even declining volumes. Barring a spectacular turnaround in the global economy, the subpar performance is likely to be repeated in 2016, making it the fifth straight year of lacklustre growth in global trade.

But this time it's different!

The world economic growth engine was majorly driven by China being with it's export and investment led economy which increased the demand of commodities and resources worldwide. The decision by Chinese government to shift it's economy from export and investment led economy to consumer led economy which has led to the slowdown of the China as world is talking about. The commodities demand of China have been decreased substantially created havoc in the Commodities market in particular Oil market which was the largest gainer of the China boom.


Effects on India of the Global Slowdown

Since India was late in the party of manufacturing boom, it has costed it dearly. China swept the market as India was stuck in politics and dismal reforms during that crucial period. The Make In India initiative is too late for India to help it substantially to rally the Indian economy.

In the new world of automation and the 3-D Printing technology are becoming increasingly feasible, I doubt that India would be exploit fully the low wages advantage. Moreover due to lack of clear rules and policies it would become distant dream. India's export growth is slowing followed by low consumption rate, it can be easily said that the time is very difficult for India as there are more challenges than opportunities way ahead.




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